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☆ The Fed may have pumped so much money into the economy that it's now taking way longer to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Fed can keep interest rates higher for longer to cool price rises — although the central bank also has room to cut should the labor market "unexpectedly weaken," Powell added. Related storyHigher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for anything from mortgages to credit cards — it encourages people to save rather than spend, which in theory, helps bring down prices. AdvertisementConversely, lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending — thus driving the economy when growth slows, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic when the Fed cut rates massively and pumped money into the system. But Reid thinks the excess money could be drained from the economy later this year, when money supply in the economy normalizes. AdvertisementDemand, supply chain snarls, and fiscal stimulus also contribute to inflationTo be sure, money supply isn't the only thing that contributes to inflation.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Reid, it's, Reid, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, Wilson Center, Business, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Washington, New York, Dudley

The yield on the 2-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.593%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly on Tuesday as investors weighed the previous day's data points and looked ahead to key inflation figures later in the week. Last week, the central bank indicated that rates will fall this year, although Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that the economic outlook remains uncertain. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index for March also fell to -14.4, below expectations, although the Chicago Fed national activity index improved. There are also several auctions on the slate, including of 17-week, 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Jim Reid, Reid Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Deutsche, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Richmond Locations: U.S

☆ China's explosive growth over the past few decades is actually just a return to its historical norm, says Deutsche Bank
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The relative growth and decline of countries/empires often lead to global tensions," wrote Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank. More tellingly, Reid wrote, it's a position that China "feels is the historical norm." The chart below from Deutsche Bank shows how much various global economies have contributed to the world's GDP throughout history. America rapidly became a major power around the late 1800s, while India and China's share of global GDP fell way down. "The rapid post-GFC catch-up had been at the epicenter of the deteriorating US-China relationship and their relative performance going forward will likely continue to define it," Reid wrote.

Persons: —, Jim Reid, Reid, tellingly, it's, doesn't Organizations: Service, Deutsche Bank, Business, Global, America Locations: China, India, America

☆ Too far, too fast? Relentless rally worrying some we are long overdue for a significant pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The broad market index has also posted gains in 16 of the last 18 weeks — something that, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, hasn't happened since 1971. However, some on Wall Street now fear the market may have overextended itself to the upside, clearing the way for a pullback from record levels. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky also noted there's a divergence never before seen in Big Tech. Volmageddon refers to a massive volatility spike in early 2018 in which the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) more than doubled to more than 50. Bottom line: A short-term pullback in stocks could take place soon, if history is any guide.

Persons: Jim Reid, hasn't, Chris Montagu, Citi's, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, RSI Locations: Big Tech

Investors brace for “fireworks”The stock price of the chip giant Nvidia has marched steadily higher over the past year and a half, propelled by investors’ hopes that artificial intelligence is truly transformative technology — and by their hope that the company’s high-end semiconductors will continue to power that technology. But in recent days, the company became the third most valuable listed company in the U.S., only to slump back to fifth. Its shares will face another big test on Wednesday, when Nvidia announces its latest quarterly earnings, with billions in investor capital on the line. After seeing the stock more than double since May on the back of huge demand for Nvidia’s chips, investors are wondering if it’s close to peaking. Opinion on Wall Street appears divided: Bloomberg reports that options traders have piled into both put options, whose value rises as a stock’s price falls, and call options.

Persons: ’, Brace, ” Jim Reid Organizations: Nvidia, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank Locations: U.S

☆ Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world. Should we be worried?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThe so-called "Magnificent 7" now wields greater financial might than almost every other major country in the world, according to new Deutsche Bank research. The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalizations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech behemoths — Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla — outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country, the bank said in a research note Tuesday. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined. Deutsche Bank analysts highlighted that the Magnificent 7's combined market cap alone would make it the second-largest country stock exchange in the world, double that of Japan in fourth. However, this level of concentration has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock market.

Persons: Michael M, Jim Reid, Deutsche, Reid, Tesla, Evelyn Partners, Daniel Casali, Evelyn, Casali Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Deutsche Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Evelyn Partners Locations: New York City, China, Japan, France, Saudi Arabia, U.S

☆ Treasury yields pull back as big economic data releases come into view
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down by around 3.7 basis points at 4.1050% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped 3.7 basis points to 4.3418%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday morning as investors brace themselves for two key pieces of economic data in the second half of the week. Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week: a preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth figure is due on Thursday, followed by the Commerce Department's closely watched personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday. Both data points will inform the Federal Reserve as it maps out when and by how much to begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key factor in determining the path of markets and the economy this year. Auctions will be held for $60 billion of 17-week Treasury bills, $61 billion of 5-year notes and $28 billion of 2-year FRNs (floating-rate notes).

Persons: Jim Reid, Bullard, Reid, that's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Commerce, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank's, Global, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, St Louis Fed, PMI

☆ Market vulnerabilities and a possible U.S. recession: Strategists give their cautious predictions for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market is now largely pricing a peak at the current Fed funds target range of 5.25-5.5%, with interest rate cuts to come next year. watch now"At the outer edges of the economy there is obvious stress that is likely to spread in 2024 with rates at these levels. So it's easy to see how bad levered investments could have been made that would be vulnerable to this higher rate regime." Recession risk 'delayed rather than diminished' In a roundtable event on Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management strategists echoed this note of caution, claiming that the risk of a U.S. recession was "delayed rather than diminished" as the impact of higher rates feeds through into the economy. "I think the the key conclusion here is that interest rates do still bite, it's just taking longer this time around," she said.

Persons: Victor J, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, GSAM, Karen Ward, it's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Global Economics, Research, Silicon Valley Bank, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, JPMorgan, Management Locations: New York, Washington, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland

☆ Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 gaining more than 11% and reaching a record next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could climb more than 11% to a record next year — and said its base case seems "conservative." The investment bank set its 2024 year-end S & P 500 target at 5,100, or more than 11% above where the broader index closed Friday at 4,559.34. In its bull case, Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could even climb to 5,500, or more than 20% above where the benchmark closed last. "We note that the S & P 500 has been in a clear trend up channel since the [Great Financial Crisis]. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin expects the S & P 500 will chop around and finally end next year at 4,700 .

Persons: —, Jim Reid, Reid, America's Savita Subramanian, Lori Calvasina, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Bank, America's Locations: London, financials

☆ Your Thanksgiving dinner still costs way more than it did before the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The price of a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner at home is $61.17 this year. AdvertisementInflation-weary Americans are finally getting some relief with the price of Thanksgiving dinner down 4.5% from last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, or AFBF. The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal at home for 10 persons is $61.17 this year as compared to $64.05 last year. A 16-pound frozen whole turkey, which costs $27.35 on average, accounted for 45% of the price of Thanksgiving dinner this year. The fall in the price of a Thanksgiving dinner comes after a cooling in US inflation amid relentless interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Persons: —, that's, Jim Reid, Reid Organizations: Service, American Farm Bureau Federation, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Business Locations: Puerto Rico

☆ There are now more central banks cutting interest rates than those hiking them: Deutsche Bank analysis
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There are now more central banks cutting rates than those hiking rates, per a Deutsche Bank analysis. For the first time since January 2021, there are more central banks cutting rates than those hiking them, according to an analysis by Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, MarketWatch reported on Tuesday. The trend started last month, with 10 central banks cutting rates — outnumbering those that hiked rates in the same time period, according to Reid's analysis of 81 central banks around the world. The trend continued this month with five central banks — including include those in Brazil and Peru — cutting rates so far. AdvertisementWhile major central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are keeping rates steady right now, there are bets that they, too, will start to hike rates in the months ahead.

Persons: —, Jim Reid, Reid, That's Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, MarketWatch, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Brazil, Peru, Swiss

☆ Central banks look to have hit peak rates. Here's how markets think they'll come down
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England dramatically hiked rates over the last 18 months in a bid to tame runaway inflation. Reid also highlighted that this is the seventh time this cycle that markets have notably reacted on dovish speculation. "Clearly rates aren't going to keep going up forever, but on the previous 6 occasions we saw hopes for near-term rate cuts dashed every time. In clear, waiting for inflation to reach 2% before cutting rates would be 'overkill,'" Moëc said. However, minutes from last week's meeting reiterated the Monetary Policy Committee's expectations that rates will need to stay higher for longer, with U.K. CPI holding steady at 6.7% in September.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, nonfarm payrolls, DBRS Morningstar, Jim Reid chalked, Reid, we've, Gilles Moëc, Moëc, Christine Lagarde, Yannis Stournaras Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of, Fed, PCE, DBRS, Deutsche Bank, ECB, AXA, National Bank of Greece, of, Bank of England, CPI, BNP Locations: New York City, Bank of England, U.S, Europe

☆ Treasury yields continue retreat after 10-year slips back below 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down around 2.4 basis points at 4.8145% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped just over 3 basis points to 4.9559%. U.S. Treasury yields continued to moderate on Tuesday after slipping back below 5%, though they remained near 16-year highs. Yields fell after Pershing Square's Bill Ackman on Monday disclosed that he had covered his bond short position. Markets are all but certain that the Fed funds target range will remain unchanged next week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Auctions will be held Tuesday for $75 billion of 42-day Treasury bills and $51 billion of 2-year notes.

Persons: Pershing, Bill Ackman, Ackman, Jim Reid, Reid, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Treasurys, Federal Locations: London

While the human tragedy dominates the broader global news agenda, its hold on global markets has typically loosened pretty quickly. Inflation-adjusted real rates matter more when deciding whether to hold gold. The 2014 Gaza War lasted about six weeks and saw Israeli forces cross the border into Gaza. The 2008-09 Gaza War also echoes today's situation and saw Israeli forces cross into Palestinian territory. And over the course of the 2014 Gaza War Brent crude fell around $10 to $93 a barrel.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jim Reid, Brent, Michael Every, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Barclays, Deutsche, Benchmark, Swiss, Rabobank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza

☆ Deutsche Bank examined economic data going all the way back to the 1700s and narrowed down the 4 criteria that indicate a recession is coming — and the US economy just triggered the final warning sign
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

And while 12 months of speculation can seem like a lifetime for investors who just want an answer, it's really only a small moment in economic history. Reid and his team spotted plenty of patterns in all that data, including the common warning signs of a recession. For example, scholars and economists have been tracking recession data in the UK since 1700, while Italy only began tracking recessions in 1980. Reid wrote that black swan events such as geopolitical shocks, natural disasters, and global pandemics happen more often than people think. "And that's before we get on to more traditional causes of recessions, like monetary tightening or speculative bubbles," Reid wrote.

Persons: it's, Jim Reid, Reid, would've, Deutsche Bank Reid Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan

☆ Euro, sterling slide versus dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers including yen, euro and sterling, held firm, though moves were subdued, up 0.13% to 104.73, as traders awaited the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) reading for August. The release comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0731 as markets raised their bets on further ECB rate hikes despite recent data showing the decline in euro zone business activity accelerated faster than initially thought last month. A source told Reuters that the ECB expects inflation in the 20-nation euro zone to remain above 3% next year, bolstering the case for a 10th consecutive interest rate increase on Thursday. YEN RETRACES GAINSThe yen fell as traders further digested comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible early exit from its negative interest rate policy.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, BoE, Stephen Gallo, Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank . Sterling, YEN RETRACES, Hiroshige Seko, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Alison Williams, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal, ECB, FX, BMO Capital Markets, U.S, CPI, Reuters, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Japan, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, London, Tokyo

☆ Dollar edges up ahead of inflation reading, euro awaits ECB decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers including yen, euro and sterling, held firm, though moves were subdued, up 0.1% to 104.70, as traders awaited the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) reading for August. The release comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. Elsewhere, the euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.0742 ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. A source told Reuters that the ECB expects inflation in the 20-nation euro zone to remain above 3% next year, bolstering the case for a 10th consecutive interest rate increase on Thursday. YEN RETRACES GAINSThe yen fell as traders further digested comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible early exit from its negative interest rate policy.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank . Sterling, YEN RETRACES, Hiroshige Seko, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Commerzbank, ECB, Reuters, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Japan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Tokyo

☆ Shares, commodities rise as sentiment towards China brightens
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 1.1%, having climbed 2.3% last week, thanks in large part to a 1.3% rise in Chinese blue chips (.CSI300). S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures rose between 0.2%-0.3%, while European stocks neared one-month highs. At least seven Fed officials are due to speak this week ahead of the next policy meeting on Sept. 19-20. In commodities, gold benefited from the diminished risk of a U.S. rate rise to stand at $1,940 an ounce . Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $88.75 a barrel, as did U.S. futures , reaching $85.73.

Persons: Ron Temple, Jim Reid, Christine Lagarde, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Simon Cameron, Moore, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Federal Reserve, Country Garden, Lazard, Holdings, Nasdaq, drugmaker Novo Nordisk, August's U.S, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, United States, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Japan, drugmaker Novo, Canada, Australia, U.S, Saudi Arabia

"Whether this bounce will continue remains to be seen, but it has given China equities a shot in the arm." S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both edged up 0.1%, while stocks in Europe opened on a strong footing. "The soft landing crowd will be pleased that the labour market is softening without much stress at the moment," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid. Any path to a hard landing, outside of a shock, has to go via signs of a soft landing first," he said. Brent crude futures were steady on the day at $88.50 a barrel, while U.S. futures were also flat at $85.55.

Persons: Jim Reid, Christine Lagarde, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Country Garden, RBC Capital Markets, Holdings, Nasdaq, drugmaker Novo Nordisk, August's U.S, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, Brent, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, SYDNEY, United States, Beijing, Shanghai, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Europe, drugmaker Novo, Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia

☆ European stocks outperform as Italy soothes bank tax nerves
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Signage for the London Stock Exchange Group is seen outside of offices in Canary Wharf in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. MSCI's broad index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) was 0.2% higher in European afternoon trade. Europe's regional Stoxx 600 (.STOXX) share index rose 0.9%, with bank stocks (.SX7P) around 1.6% higher. Italy's FTSE MIB share index gained 1.8%. "The burden-sharing of the costs and benefits from higher rates has a habit of becoming a political issue," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jim Reid, China's, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Sydney, Ellen Zhang, Christina Fincher, David Evans Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, China CPI, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Moody's, U.S . National Federation of Independent, Wednesday, U.S . Treasury, BCA, Reserve, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, China, Italy, Thursday's U.S, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Beijing

☆ China slips into deflation, fueling more calls for economic stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Shop and factory prices both fell in China last month, according to data released Wednesday. That means the country is suffering deflation for the first time in over two years. It's the latest in a long list of concerns for Beijing as China's post-COVID rebound fizzles out. That's another economic worry for Beijing, which is also contending with faltering growth, skyrocketing youth unemployment, and massive amounts of debt. The data released Wednesday is likely to lead to more calls for fiscal stimulus, according to analysts.

Persons: Hargreaves, Steve Clayton, Jim Reid Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, National Bureau of Statistics, CPI, PPI, Deutsche Bank Locations: China, Beijing, Wall, Silicon

☆ Stocks rise, dollar retreats ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data on Wednesday to see if price pressures are continuing to moderate, which could provide clues on the interest rate outlook. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.3%, lifted by gains in European shares, as the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.6% and U.S. stock index futures , rose 0.2-0.4%, suggesting a modest rise at the opening bell. Economists polled by Reuters expect the consumer price index to have risen by 3.1% in June, after May's 4% increase. "There is a massive eye on tomorrow's inflation data - it comes to late in the day for the July meeting. Analysts expect earnings to have shrunk 6.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Persons: Toby Melville, Craig Erlam, Jim Reid, Wells, Julie Zhu, Jamie Freed, David Evans, Chizu Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, U.S ., Treasury, Deutsche Bank, London Metal Exchange, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, U.S, Brent, Wall, Hong Kong

☆ Stocks edge higher, dollar sags eyeing Fed pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On an annual basis, consumer prices rose 4%, the smallest in more than two years, slowing from April's 4.9%. That has crystallised traders' views that the Fed is unlikely to hike rates later on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.2%, setting Wall Street for further gains after U.S. stocks rallied to 14-month highs overnight. That supported the euro , which was up 0.1% to $1.0850, hovering just below Tuesday's three-week high of $1.08235. German two-year bond yields touched a fresh high since March ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank rates decision.

Persons: Richard McGuire, Jim Reid, Stocks, Yoruk Bahceli, Stella Qiu, Jacqueline Wong, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: Sterling, U.S . Federal, U.S, CPI, Nasdaq, Rabobank, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Thursday's European Central Bank, Brent, International Energy Agency, Tokyo's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: London, Asia

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation anxiety, yet S&P 500 keeps on running
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Samuel Indyk. Jerome Powell and his band of brothers on the Federal Open Market Committee will be sitting nervously. Money market traders are pricing around a three-in-four chance the Fed keeps rates on hold and a one-in-four shot of a 25 basis point hike. The S&P 500 (.SPX) closed on Monday at its highest level since April last year and is up well over 20% from its October 2022 low - a bear market rally or a new bull market? They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell, Jim Reid, they're, Reid, FOMC, Susan Fenton Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Reuters, CPI, Deutsche Bank, Money, People's Bank of China, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan

☆ It's Wall Street vs Wall Street as the recession debate rages on. Here's what David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach and 5 other experts have warned.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts are butting heads over the health of the economy, and what's to come. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president"Markets pricing in a 'soft landing'? Will they ever be in for a big surprise," the Rosenberg Research chief tweeted. "You look at the United States and it seems to me that we're still making this transition from expansion to recession," Rosenberg said. "We're referring to this phenomenon as a Cardboard Box Recession, because items that are made (manufacturing) and shipped (trade) tend to go in a box.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, Clif Asness, —, Rosenberg, Will, hasn't, we're, Gundlach, Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Kleintop, Goldman Sachs, That's, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fibre, Association, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Locations: United States

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